10 Year Tresury and Nasdaq - In sync

 Traditionally bonds acts as the safe heaven which advanced ( price is inversely related to 10 year yield) in troubled market conditions. In other words, raising yield means economy is growing , GDP  will raise , unemployment will fall , so all the good stuff . But this also means that Ultra accommodating FED policy will change and  inflation could rise ( Although FED will have to act swiftly and need to raise rates to slow down the economy).

Why they are in Sync

All this will affect the valuation or P/E multiples that market is willing to give for equities / risk assets . Or further price advancement  for risky assets will be limited . For example, FED raised rates 4 times in 2018 , which greatly affected the bull market and they touched multi-year low on Dec 26 2018 .

FED Forward guidance is a powerful tool and expectation of FED forward guidance based on the expected global growth (10 - year treasury) can send shock through the risky assets. 

Past 1 Month chart for 10 year and NASDAQ ( grow stocks)





Because of the recovery expectation - vaccine optimism, pent up demand & Stimulus - Basically opening up the economy , 2021 GDP are being revised to close to 7% in United states . Jan IMF estimates are below

 

 

Comments